说起人口红利大国，印度这个国家马上想起的是追赶中国，中国以前进行发展的时候有句口号：赶英超美。印度则是无条件追赶中国，印度人为了从人口上追赶上中国已经成为世界人口增长率第一高的国家了，而在经济层面上印度的经济增长率他们也颇有信心，期待在未来五年内发展到当前中国的经济水平。在美版知乎Quora上，印度网友问：中国GDP是印度的五倍，中印两国制度差异是印度落后的原因吗？这引起各国网友的热议。
问题：中国GDP是印度的五倍，原因是中印制度差异吗？
印度网友瑞兹维的回答
The form of government is not the only reason for a country's economic growth. The economy of the United States is on par with that of China, and its degree of democracy is much better than ours in India.
政府的形式并不是一个国家经济增长的唯一原因。美国的经济与中国不相上下，而且它的民主程度比我们印度好得多。
As for the economic scale of China and India, there are many reasons why India is still far behind.
至于中国和印度的经济规模，印度仍然远远落后的原因有很多。
• Early Reform - Unlike India, China's economic reform began as early as 1978, and first-mover advantage can help increase GDP growth. China has been opening up to foreign investment since 1978, while India has only been doing so since 1991. Until 1978, the two countries were basically the same economically, and then China began to develop rapidly.
•早期改革-与印度不同，中国的经济改革早在1978年就开始了，先发优势有助于提高GDP增长。中国从1978年开始向外国投资开放，而印度从1991年才开始这样做。直到1978年，这两个国家在经济方面都基本一样，然后中国开始飞速发展。
中印GDP走势
• Infrastructure investment - Infrastructure is the pillar of economic development. China realized this early on and made more investments. China's average annual infrastructure expenditure as a percentage of GDP is extremely high, making it one of the highest in the world. Between 1992 and 2011, China spent an average of 8.5% of GDP on the construction of roads, railways, and power and water conservancy facilities.
•基础设施投资——基础设施是经济发展的支柱。中国很早就意识到了这一点，并进行了更多的投资。中国的年均基础设施支出占国内生产总值的百分比极高，是世界上最高的之一。1992年至2011年间，中国在公路、铁路以及电力和水利设施建设上的支出平均占GDP的8.5%。
各国基础设施投资占GDP比重
• More Population - Between 1980 and 2010, China's population was significantly higher than India's. China has made full use of this. A large population means a large labor force and strong domestic demand. Currently, China is the fastest growing consumer market in the world.
•人口更多——1980年至2010年间，中国的人口数量远高于印度。中国充分利用了这一点。庞大的人口意味着庞大的劳动力和强劲的国内需求。目前，中国是世界上增长最快的消费市场。
中印人口走势
• Government and policy stability - China has never faced a serious political crisis, and since 1980, each government has been continuously reforming one after another. The policy is highly stable, and the same management model has continued over the years, but will be adjusted within the framework. On the other hand, India's government was weak between 1977 and 1980, and between 1996 and 1998, with obvious political infighting.
•政府和政策的稳定——中国从未面临过严重的政治危机，自1980年以来，每一届政府一个接一个地连续改革。政策极具稳定性，多年来，同样的管理模式仍在继续，但会在框架内进行调整。另一方面，印度在1977年至1980年和1996年至1998年期间政府表现软弱，政客内斗明显。
• Human development factors: According to the United Nations Human Development Report, China ranks higher in the human development index than India. Between 1990 and 2018, China's human development index increased by 51.1% from 0.501 to 0.758. China's index is 1.29 times that of India. The proportion of China's public health expenditure to GDP is more than three times that of GDP. China's life expectancy at birth has risen from 67 years in 1980 to 76.4 years in 2018. The literacy rate increased from 65% in 1980 to 96% in 2016. In India, the literacy rate increased from 44% to 72% (1980-2014). In 1985, the per capita GDP of China and India was approximately 293 US dollars. According to data from the World Bank in 2022, China's per capita GDP has soared to $12000, while India's per capita GDP has climbed to $2300.
•人类发展因素：根据联合国《人类发展报告》，中国的人类发展指数排名高于印度。1990年至2018年间，中国的人类发展指数从0.501增加到0.758，增长了51.1%。中国的指数是印度的1.29倍。中国公共卫生支出占GDP的比例是GDP的三倍多。中国的出生预期寿命已从1980年的67岁上升到2018年的76.4岁。识字率从1980年的65%上升到2016年的96%。而在印度，识字率从44%上升到72%（1980-2014年）。1985年，中国和印度的人均国内生产总值约为293美元。根据世界银行2022年的数据，中国的人均GDP已飙升至1.2万美元，印度的人均GDP攀升至2300美元。
Poverty level/贫困程度
巴西、中国、印度、南非的贫困指数走势
HDI（人类发展指数）
中印人类发展指数对比
India since 1990
1990年以来的印度
90年以来印度社会各项指数
The vast majority of people are non religious, and the social structure has a significant impact on economic growth. China has the largest non religious population in the world, and both the Chinese government and the Communist Party are atheists. China adheres to the policy of freedom of religious belief, with the large participation of women, open eating habits, and lack of religious polarization, which has contributed to China becoming a growth and development oriented society.
•绝大多数人不信教，社会结构对经济增长有很大影响。中国是世界上非宗教人口最多的国家，中国政府和共产党都是无神论者。中国秉承宗教信仰自由政策，妇女的大量参与、开放的饮食习惯和没有宗教两极分化，为中国成为一个以增长和发展为导向的社会做出了贡献。
印度专家麦道克•威廉姆斯的回答
Today, as China turns 70, it is far ahead of India in terms of economy, military power, technological progress, and even pollution control, while India is still regarded as just an emerging power.
如今，随着中国年满70岁，它在经济、军事力量、技术进步甚至污染控制方面都远远领先于印度，而印度仍然被认为只是一个新兴大国。
India is three to two years older than China, although both are ancient civilizations. Despite the different forms of government, India and China have many similarities in governance and economic growth.
印度比中国大三到两年，尽管两者都是古老的文明。尽管政府形式截然不同，但印度和中国在治理和经济增长方面有许多共同点。
In 1949, New China was founded, and in the same year, India adopted the Constitution. Both countries began rebuilding in 1950 - China under the leadership of the first generation of revolutionaries such as Mao Zedong, and India under the leadership of Pandit Jawaharlal Nehru.
1949年，新中国成立，同年印度通过了宪法。两国都于1950年开始重建——中国在毛泽东等第一代革命家的领导下，印度在潘迪特·贾瓦哈拉尔·尼赫鲁领导下。
At that time, despite nearly 200 years of colonial exploitation, India was still the largest economy in Asia. Pandit Nehru is regarded by world leaders as a dreamer with strong democratic credentials.
当时，尽管经历了近200年的殖民剥削，印度仍是亚洲最大的经济体。潘迪特·尼赫鲁（Pandit Nehru）被世界领导人视为具有强大民主资历的梦想家。
Today, China is over 70 years old - October 1st is China's National Day - and China is far ahead of India in terms of economy, military power, technological progress, and even pollution control. China has made comprehensive exponential progress and become a huge force in the world, while India is still considered as an emerging power.
今天，中国已年满70岁——10月1日是中国的国庆日——在经济、军事力量、技术进步甚至污染控制方面，中国都遥遥领先于印度。中国已经取得了全面的指数级进步，成为世界上一支巨大的力量，而印度仍然被认为是一个新兴大国。
It is no exaggeration to say that India needs to learn some trade skills from China. Until 1990, China's per capita GDP was "poorer" than India's. Now, in 2019, China's per capita GDP is 4.6 times that of India.
可以毫不夸张地说，印度需要向中国学习一些贸易技巧，直到1990年，中国的人均GDP都比印度“穷”。现在，2019年，中国的人均GDP是印度的4.6倍。
Let the economy work first
先让经济运转起来
China has been struggling with an expanding population and uncontrollable poverty. In the 1980s, China began opening up its economy and inviting foreign investment, especially in coastal areas, making imports and exports smoother.
中国一直与不断扩大的人口和无法控制的贫困作斗争。中国在八十年代开始开放经济，邀请外国投资，特别是在沿海地区，使进出口变得畅通。
They liberated agriculture from state control, which was a major reform of the country. It implements the one-child policy to defuse the population bomb and thereby exploit the demographic dividend.
他们将农业从国家控制下解放出来，这是该国的一项重大改革。它实施独生子女政策，以化解人口炸弹，从而利用人口红利。
中印历年GDP对比
In contrast, India, led by Pandit Nehru, has adopted a socialist economic model that discourages wealth creation and large private enterprises. The traditional rule of law in India stipulated an open market, and the British colonial rulers bound it to the open market in order to maximize their industrial progress.
相比之下，印度在潘迪特·尼赫鲁（Pandit Nehru）的领导下，采用了不鼓励创造财富和大型私营企业的社会主义经济模式。印度的传统法治规定了开放市场，英国殖民统治者将其束缚在开放市场中，以最大限度地提高自己的工业进步。
In the 1960s and 1970s, India's economic growth rate was about 3.5%, while its population growth rate exceeded 2.5%. The population growth rate is strange because India was one of the first countries to introduce population control policies after World War II.
在20世纪60年代和70年代，印度经济增长率约为3.5%，而人口增长率超过2.5%。人口增长率很奇怪，因为印度是二战后第一批推出人口控制政策的国家之一。
However, due to the low prevalence of medical facilities in remote areas and a lack of awareness, family planning centres in India have actually played a role in expanding family size.
然而，由于偏远地区的医疗设施普及率很低，而且缺乏认识，印度的计划生育中心实际上起到了扩大家庭规模的作用。
Focus on infrastructure
专注于基础设施
More importantly, China has begun to invest heavily in infrastructure. This is a key policy decision because it provides employment opportunities for millions of people, improving their economic status and purchasing power, which is a key factor in industrial progress. China continues to invest heavily in infrastructure. This is evident in its "the Belt and Road" initiative.
更重要的是，中国开始在基础设施方面进行大量投资。这是一项关键的政策决定，因为它为数百万人提供了就业机会，提高了他们的经济地位和购买力，而购买力是工业进步的关键因素。中国仍在继续对基础设施进行大量投资。这在其“一带一路”倡议中显而易见。
According to an estimate, India's average infrastructure investment in the first 50 years after independence accounted for 3% of GDP, while India needed more than 6.5% of investment. On the other hand, nearly 9% of China's GDP is invested in infrastructure, which could have been invested by 6.5%.
根据一项估计，印度独立后前50年的平均基础设施投资占国内生产总值的3%，而印度需要超过6.5%的投资。另一方面，中国将近9%的GDP投资于基础设施，而本可以投资6.5%。
In the 2019 Economic Survey, India called for investing 7-8% of GDP in infrastructure to achieve strong growth and make India a $5 trillion economy by 2025. The survey found that the investment was 27% lower than the requirement.
在《2019年经济调查》中，印度呼吁将GDP的7-8%投资于基础设施，以实现强劲增长，并在2025年前使印度成为5万亿美元的经济体。调查发现，投资比要求低了27%。
Industrial development methods by industry
分业种工业发展方法
In the 1970s, both India and China had economic and demographic issues to address. China has begun building labor intensive industries to attract cheap labor available. Industries such as textiles, light industry, and electronics have received significant investments.
20世纪70年代，印度和中国都有经济和人口问题需要解决。中国开始建设劳动密集型产业，以吸引可用的廉价劳动力。纺织、轻工和电子等行业获得了巨额投资。
China has also established special economic zones to promote the development of manufacturing and export oriented industries. These regions have relaxed general business rules and marked areas with better infrastructure and access to cheap labor for investors.
中国还设立了经济特区，以推动制造业和出口导向型产业的发展。这些地区放宽了一般商业规则，在基础设施更好、投资者可以获得廉价劳动力的地区进行了标记。
The Indian Special Economic Zone established decades later lacks such impetus and better incentives to attract foreign investors in terms of quantity and scale, thereby making China competitive.
几十年后建立的印度经济特区缺乏这样的推动力和更好的激励措施，无法在数量和规模上吸引外国投资者，从而使中国竞争。
India's labor force is almost equally cheap, but India has opted for heavy industry. The second five-year plan is fully committed to industrial development and focuses on large industries in practice.
印度的劳动力几乎同样便宜，但印度选择了重工业。第二个五年计划充分致力于工业发展，并在实践中重点关注大工业。
India encourages capital intensive industries that cost millions of job seekers potential employment. In turn, this has not promoted industrial growth or increased public investment income in infrastructure, health, and other important sectors.
印度鼓励资本密集型产业，这些产业是以数百万求职者失去潜在就业为代价的。反过来，这并没有促进工业增长，也没有增加基础设施、卫生和其他重要部门的公共投资收入。
Military transformation
军事改造
In 1962, India and China fought a war. China officially controls Aksaichin, which covers over 37000 square kilometers of Ladak. Many people believe that India's decision not to use the air force is the cause of its military collapse.
1962年，印度和中国打了一场战争。中国正式控制了拉达克37000多平方公里的阿克赛钦。许多人认为，印度决定不使用空军是导致军事崩溃的原因。
Although China remains India's competitor even on the border, it has adjusted its military to overcome weaknesses that India did not exploit in 1962. In the recent series of military reforms, China has modernized its troops along the lines of theater headquarters. It is considered to be a more effective military to deal with any security threat.
尽管中国即使在边境上仍然是印度的竞争对手，但它已经调整了军队，以克服1962年印度没有利用的弱点。在最近的一系列军事改革中，中国按照战区指挥部的路线实现了部队现代化。它被认为是一支更有效的军队，用来应对任何安全威胁。
On the other hand, the Indian army is still organized according to the model of World War II. The modernization of weapons and equipment is long overdue, and China has been continuously improving its weapons and equipment. China has learned that the nature of war is changing - from conventional to technological warfare, with the focus on overwhelming the enemy without losing too many soldiers. India can learn from China's experience to address threats from the same adversary.
另一方面，印度军队仍然按照第二次世界大战的模式组织。武器装备的现代化早就应该实现了，而中国一直在不断改进其武器装备。中国已经了解战争的性质在变化——从常规战争到技术战争，重点是在不损失太多士兵的情况下压倒敌人。印度可以借鉴中国的经验来应对来自同一对手的威胁。
Energy Awareness
能源意识
Energy is the key to a country's survival and progress, and traditional energy sources - coal and oil - are limited. Developed countries are increasingly paying attention to shifting to alternative energy sources. China has also made a shift, significantly reducing its dependence on coal and promoting green energy such as solar energy. China has become the second largest solar energy producer.
能源是一个国家生存和进步的关键，传统能源——煤炭和石油——是有限的。发达国家越来越重视转向替代能源。中国也做出了转变，大幅减少了对煤炭的依赖，并推广了太阳能等绿色能源。中国已成为第二大太阳能生产国。
India may follow China's example and reduce its dependence on coal and oil, most of which are imported. Oil imports have been a major volatility factor determining the health of India's economy.
印度可能会效仿中国，减少对煤炭和石油的依赖，其中大部分是进口的。石油进口一直是决定印度经济健康状况的一个主要波动因素。
China is actively promoting the use of new energy vehicles, and India is also closely following. According to a report from the World Economic Forum, China has the largest number of public charging points for electric vehicles and electric vehicles. Given the pollution situation in Indian cities, the similar thrust of electric vehicles will work wonders for the country's air.
中国积极推动新能源汽车的使用，印度也在紧随其后。根据世界经济论坛的一份报告，中国拥有最多的电动汽车和电动汽车的公共充电点。考虑到印度城市的污染状况，电动汽车的类似推力将对该国的空气产生奇迹。
Water source issues
水源问题
India has about four times the freshwater resources of China, and China has three times the area of India. But today, India faces greater water problems than China. Earlier this year, the water shortage in Chennai made global headlines. Many regions of Bihar are facing drinking water shortages for the first time this year. Nevertheless, Bihar is the state most affected by floods in the country.
印度的淡水资源大约是中国的四倍，而中国的面积是印度的三倍。但如今，印度面临着比中国更大的水资源问题。今年早些时候，金奈的缺水问题成为全球头条新闻。比哈尔邦许多地区今年首次面临饮用水短缺问题。尽管如此，比哈尔邦是该国受洪水影响最严重的州。
To overcome water scarcity, China has successfully taught agricultural communities to reduce water use without affecting agricultural productivity. India is the largest groundwater mining country, and Indians use more water than the next two users - China and the United States combined.
为了克服缺水问题，中国成功地教会了农业社区在不影响农业生产力的情况下减少用水。印度是最大的地下水开采国，印度人使用的水量超过了接下来两个用户——中国和美国的总和。
But India's water reserves have reached a stage where measures need to be taken in China. China not only encourages reducing water use, but also imposes fines on those who overuse groundwater, including industries and enterprises. Industrial or commercial units that pollute rivers and ponds can also be severely punished.
但印度的水资源储备已经到了如果在中国身上需要采取措施的阶段。中国不仅鼓励减少用水，还对那些过度使用地下水的人（包括工业和企业）处以罚款。污染河流和池塘的工业或商业单位也会受到严厉处罚。
Farmers rely heavily on groundwater irrigation (accounting for over 60% of demand). One of the arguments raised in their defense is that India's land holdings are extremely fragmented, leading to excessive use of irrigation water. China's average land tenure is small, but farmers use much less water to improve agricultural productivity. India may also launch a fragmented advocacy campaign to reduce water waste in farmland.
农民严重依赖地下水灌溉（占需求的60%以上）。他们在辩护中提出的一个论点是，印度的土地持有极其分散，导致灌溉用水过度使用。中国的平均土地保有量较小，但农民使用的水要少得多，以提高农业生产力。印度还可能发起一场零散的宣传运动，以减少农田中的水浪费。
