全球行业正处在变革的风口浪尖，《哈佛商业评论》此前发布了Gartner分析师预测的今年将可能带来的多种职场颠覆性趋势。 从四天工作周制，到人工智能的辅助，再到技能超越学位的入职要求，每一项趋势都预示着行业的重大转变，都在重新定义职场的未来。 企业和个人都将不得不适应这些变化，直面新环境带来的潜在挑战。在这个充满不确定性的时代，作为职场人，以及即将成为职场人的萌新们，是否准备好迎接新变革了呢？ 2023 was a fairly tumultuous year for the world, as well as the worlds of work and business. 对于世界以及工作和商业领域来说，2023 年是相当动荡的一年。 So what can we expect in 2024? 那么，2024 年我们能期待什么呢？ In a recent HBR article, analysts at research and consulting firm Gartner say the answer is more disruption. 在《哈佛商业评论》最近的一篇文章中，研究和咨询公司 Gartner 的分析师说，答案是更多的颠覆。 And they've identified nine trends that could shape work in the next year. 他们指出了下一年可能影响工作的九大趋势。 Are you and your team ready for these potential game changers? 你和你的团队准备好迎接这些潜在的游戏规则改变者了吗？ Let's find out. 让我们一探究竟。 Trend one -- organizations will offer benefits to address the costs of work. 趋势一：组织将提供福利以解决工作成本问题。 Employees who shifted to working remote or hybrid have experienced what it is to work without bearing the financial, time, and energy costs of going into the office every day. 转为远程工作或混合工作的员工已经体验过无需承担每天去办公室的经济、时间和精力成本的工作方式。 Not having to commute is a huge savings for many. 对许多人来说，无需上下班就是一笔巨大的节省。 Organizations will try to tackle the costs of work head on by sharing or reducing the tangible and intangible costs of returning to the office. 各组织将通过分担或减少返回办公室的有形和无形成本，努力正面解决工作成本问题。 Trend two -- AI will create, not diminish, workforce opportunity. 趋势二：人工智能将创造而不是减少工作机会。 Everyone's concerned gen AI could replace many jobs. 每个人都担心人工智能会取代许多工作。 But in the short to medium term, that seems unlikely. 但在中短期内，这似乎不太可能。 What gen AI will do is lead jobs to be redesigned to include new responsibilities, such as prompt engineering and cybersecurity. 人工智能将带来的是工作岗位的重新设计，以包括新的职责，如及时工程和网络安全。 Gartner predicts that gen AI will play a role in 70% of text and data-heavy tasks by 2025. Gartner 预测，到 2025 年，人工智能将在 70% 的文本和数据繁重任务中发挥作用。 Trend three -- four-day work weeks will move from radical to routine. 趋势三：四天工作周将从激进变为常规。 This once seemed like a dream as distant as flying cars. 这似乎曾是一个与飞行汽车一样遥不可及的梦想。 But four-day work weeks have been raised in union negotiations and are the preference for many workers. 但四天工作周已经在工会谈判中被提出，并成为许多工人的首选。 Recent pilots of a four-day workweek have suggested benefits for productivity and employee well-being. 最近的四天工作周试点表明，四天工作周有利于提高生产率和员工福利。 Trend number four -- employee conflict resolution will be a must-have skill for managers. 趋势四：解决员工冲突将成为管理者的必备技能。 This year, conflicts between employees are poised to be at an all-time high. 今年，员工之间的冲突将达到历史最高水平。 Managers who can effectively navigate and manage conflict among employees will have an outsized positive impact on their organizations. 能够有效引导和管理员工之间冲突的管理者将对其组织产生巨大的积极影响。 Trend five -- gen AI experiments will yield hard lessons and painful costs. 趋势五：新一代人工智能实验将造成惨痛教训和代价。 Gartner found that gen AI has already reached the peak of inflated expectations. Gartner 发现，人工智能已经达到了夸大期望的顶峰。 It will next enter what they call the trough of disillusionment, a two to five-year period during which gen AI just won't live up to overhyped expectations. 接下来，它将进入所谓的幻灭低谷，在这两到五年的时间里，人工智能将无法满足人们过高的期望。 Companies will need to actively manage expectations, as well as the risks associated with implementation. 公司需要积极管理预期、以及与实施相关的风险。 Trend six -- skills requirements will overtake degree requirements. 趋势六：技能要求将超越学位要求。 College degrees are the top requirement of yesterday's job descriptions, not tomorrow's. 大学学位是过去工作描述的最高要求，而不是未来的要求。 Organizations today are increasingly shredding the paper ceiling. 如今，越来越多的组织开始打破“纸质天花板”。 It's the invisible barrier workers without degrees face. 这是没有学位的员工所面临的无形障碍。 And they're embracing skills-based hiring, even for some corporate jobs long considered degree dependent. 他们正在接受以技能为基础的招聘，甚至是一些长期以来被认为依赖学位的企业工作。 Trend seven -- climate change protection will become a new employee benefit. 趋势七：气候变化保护将成为一项新的员工福利。 2023 brought new visibility to how climate change is impacting workforces worldwide. 2023 年，气候变化对全球劳动力的影响有了新的认识。 As these events shift from localized and episodic to widespread and persistent, organizations are making disaster response plans a more explicit part of their employee value proposition. 随着这些事件从局部性和偶发性转变为广泛性和持续性，组织正将灾难应对计划作为其员工价值主张中更为明确的一部分。 Trend eight -- DEI will become more embedded in the way we work. 趋势八：多元、平等、包容计划（Diversity, Equity, Inclusion）将更加深入我们的工作方式。 For too many organizations, DEI still operates in a silo with no accountability or ownership, limited decision-making powers, and ineffective cost enterprise DEI efforts. 对于太多的组织而言，DEI计划仍然是在一个没有问责制或所有权的“孤岛”中运行，决策权有限，企业DEI计划的成本效益低下。 In 2024, companies will begin to embed DEI throughout the organization, positioning it not as what they do, but how they achieve high performance in their key objectives. 2024 年，企业将开始在整个组织中嵌入DEI，不是将其定位为企业的工作，而是如何在关键目标上实现高绩效。 Trend nine -- traditional stereotypes of career paths will collapse in the face of workforce change. 趋势九：面对劳动力的变化，传统的职业发展路径定式将崩溃。 More employees are stepping out of the workforce mid-career, shifting across industries, or embracing less predictable work at some point in their careers. 越来越多的员工在职业生涯中途离职，越来越多的员工在职业生涯的某个阶段中途退出职场、跨行业转行或从事可预测性较低的工作。 Workers are also contending with involuntary disruptions to their careers due to economic cycles, caregiving responsibilities, displacement during conflict and natural disasters, and shifting responsibilities as technology and business models evolve. 工人们还不得不应对因经济周期、照顾家庭的责任、冲突和自然灾害中的流离失所、以及随着技术和商业模式演变而变化的职责所导致的对他们职业生涯的非自愿中断。 As a typical career paths become mainstream, organizations must rethink the well-entrenched stereotypes that underpin most talent management strategies. 随着非典型职业道路成为主流，组织必须重新思考支撑大多数人才管理战略的根深蒂固的陈规定型观念。